In the lead-up to the Kentucky Derby 2026, horse racing expert Jody Demling is fading the morning-line favorite Renegade, who stands at odds of 4-1. This decision stems from historical trends and challenges related to post positions.
Demling pointed out that the favorite has not won the Kentucky Derby since 2018—a significant statistic that weighs heavily on his analysis. He stated, “Renegade has history, in multiple aspects, working against him for Saturday’s race.” The competition includes Further Ado and Commandment, both at 6-1, and Chief Wallabee at 8-1.
In a field of 19 horses—after The Puma was scratched—Demling believes that Renegade’s position could prove detrimental. His insights reflect a broader skepticism about favorites in this storied race. Notably, three longshots are tied at odds of 50-1: Intrepido, Six Speed, and Great White.
Adding to the intrigue is Danon Bourbon, who recently won the Fukuryu Stakes by an impressive ten lengths. This Japanese contender aims to make history as the first horse based out of Japan to win at Churchill Downs. Demling remarked, “Of the two Japanese horses, Danon Bourbon has more speed than Wonder Dean, which is why I have him ranked higher.”
Todd Pletcher trains Renegade and has a solid reputation—he’s a two-time Derby champion. However, Irad Ortiz, despite over 4,000 career wins, remains winless in nine previous Derby rides. This raises questions about whether he can break that streak with Renegade.
Demling has successfully predicted the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double twelve times in the last seventeen years. His track record lends weight to his current skepticism regarding Renegade’s chances. Observers are keenly awaiting how these historical trends will play out on race day.
The Kentucky Derby will go to post at 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday. As anticipation builds for this iconic event, many will be watching closely to see if Demling’s insights hold true amidst the excitement of horse racing.
